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2019 Daily Fantasy Sports ๐Ÿ‘Š#2 MMA Betting LINES, Expert Picks Against the SPREAD, 2019 DFS UFC Data

2019 Daily Fantasy Sports ๐Ÿ‘Š#2 MMA Betting LINES, Expert Picks Against the SPREAD, 2019 DFS UFC Data


– If you’re looking to add
another drafting sport to your arsenal, consider MMA. It’s part two of this
daily fantasy sports series and we’re starting right now. (upbeat electro intro music) What’s up guys, Joe Holka here, welcome to another daily fantasy
sports and betting video. If this is your first
time here and you want to become a profitable Draft
Kings player and get better at betting, start now
by subscribing to the channel but make sure you click that
notification bell as well so you don’t miss anything along the way. If you’re already a Holkamaniac,
you know what to do: Smash that like button,
and we’ll get rolling. So a good friend of the
community, Pat Mayo, definitely can move ownership for
something like golf. Is that something that can
happen for MMA as far as the Vegas lines? Are people even reacting
to this type of news? I want to talk about that now. (lightning crashes) – I’ll get into Vegas in a few minutes, – Yeah. – I know Joe has pulled up
the great best fight odds, that is the most, that is
one of the best tools you can look at. There’s gonna
be obviously line volume, I know the people will tilt
certain guys, and their betting odds are gonna
collapse, just like any other sport. You know, just like golf. You look at the Mayo effect, right? – Right. – Mayo says that this guy,
you know, he made a 250 guy go down to 200, so, I mean,
that happens in MMA so you might want to take
that into consideration. (lightning crashes) – Guys it’s been crazy to
see this community grow, I really appreciate everyone
that’s been helping out and one of the best ways to
support what I’m doing here for free, if you haven’t
already, is throw me the follow over on Twitter. I definitely have an awesome
community over on Instagram now as well, so if you could
take a few seconds and follow me over there I’d really appreciate it. So one of the biggest things
is trying to find underdogs when it comes to MMA. It’s a big ownership sport,
so how can we find some of these over-unders from maybe
these ones that don’t go the distance and try and
find some value there? (lightning crashes) – You know you gotta look at
the fights as a whole too. It’s not as simple as just
saying “This guy is better than this guy and that’s it”,
so you look at the over-unders from Vegas as well, you look
at “Oh, is this fight going to go the distance?”. So, if it’s gonna go the
distance you can get a dog at, you know, lower salary, to
open up more options that will allow you to put in somebody
that you might really need to get into the lineups. You know, you can get all the
guys you want, but when it comes to underdogs, you really
want underdogs that will get the win. That’s what you should be
trying to get, because that’s the 25 points. At the end of the day
that’s what you want. But on certain cards, you’re
gonna see there’s a lot of finishes that are expected
in the particular card. I would probably target somebody
with upside, personally. You know, that could get a finish. So a lot of these flyweights,
these 125 pounders, I like to target those fights– – Mhm. – As a dog, because they go the distance
at a high rate, just a rule of thumb. So for instance, it could be
minus 400 to go the distance, so at least you’re locking
in three rounds, which is five minute rounds, that’s
fifteen minutes of fighting, perhaps he gets a take down,
he’s getting significant strikes on the feet so
there’s back and forth, you’re getting a little bit
out of your underdogs. Then you’re gonna have
instances where, like I said, Vegas odds will flip or
you’ll have odds value on a particular fighter where you
look at him and say “Well, I have to get him in my lineup
because it’s like a free exit this stage”, right? Unfortunately that happens. Not a lot anymore, but it does happen. Again, it’s something to monitor,
but at the end of the day it’s really about who you
think is going to win, how that fight is going to take place. (lightning crashes) I wanted to take a quick
second and shout out the Amazon crew. Guys, I really appreciate
it, if you’re using one of my links in the description
like you know, you don’t have to buy one of those
products if you’re just using it, maybe you’ve bookmarked
it for your day to day shopping. It truly does a lot to keep
this channel going, so I really appreciate you guys. If you’re new to the Amazon
crew, definitely let me know in the comments so I can
give you a shout out. So for any sport, you
always wanna keep an eye on line movement when it comes
to the Vegas lines, but in particular, MMA can be a
huge impact on your bottom line. (lightning crashes) – Again, there’s a lot of
different moving factors. People will tilt somebody,
their odds are just gonna crash. I mean, you know– – Yeah. – Big Marley’s a big
better, he has a great track record, he says, you
know, “Pick this person, they might move 20, they
might move 30 points”. – That’s crazy. – It happens. It really does happen. So then you can say “Oh,
well, you know, I don’t think that that’s gonna happen so
we can take the other side and get lower ownership”. This page is showing you
everything, if you click on pretty much any of the numbers there
you’re gonna see the movement that, you know, for instance,
Moraes in the main event opened up minus 215– – Nice. – And his opponent Assuncao
has been bet down a little bit so now he’s just a minus 170. If you go over to the far
right, it says props, you hit that there, it’ll show you– – Oh wow. – The fight goes to the
distance, the fight doesn’t go to the distance. You know, how many, what Vegas
thinks what round it would finish if it were to
finish inside the distance. You look at all different
things, is it going to be a knockout, is it going to
be a submission, inside the distance, numbers are important. These are all things you gotta
take into consideration when building lineups. I know, you know, I say
grappler, grappler, grappler, but it’s card dependence as well,
Joe, there’s cards you’re gonna see that’s gonna be all
like European guys that no one knows about, but they’re
all kick boxers and is it going to be, you know,
a bunch of women’s fights, historically score a lot less. I know everybody sees Nunes
knock Cyborg out, which was crazy in itself and that
doesn’t happen at a high rate. You scroll down there to the
line movement you can see where the public is going at that time. Again, this is just one of the tools. You want to take into
consideration a lot more than just “Hey, this is what Vegas
thinks, that’s it”. Because, for instance, on this
card that you’re looking at, you have, you know Bibulatov
is the biggest favorite on the card, for instance,
and he is a grappler, Russian, sambo type guy that will
get take downs, right? So he might not finish
inside the distance. His inside the distance is
like plus 200, and we know that he’s got a safe floor,
for instance, because he’s going to get take downs,
he’s going to advance, he’s going to garner a lot of
points in a three round decision. But, if you look at somebody
like, I don’t know, for instance, Markus Perez versus
Anthony Hernandez, those guys too are probably gonna
slug it out, and if they’re slugging it out, swings are
gonna be happening all over the place, you know? It could just be a coin flip at that. (lightning crashes) – A lot of the value comes
pretty close to Locke, I mean you’re gonna be
looking for a favorites in general, these large favorites
are gonna be extremely, highly owned. If you can find a nice line
that moves pretty close to Locke, a lot of times people
will still be reacting like “Maybe it is a big favorites
situation”, if things close a little bit you can find some
value there and definitely orders you discount. (lightning crashes) Is there anything else you’re
doing with the Vegas page? So, like, how are you using,
like you mentioned that this one guy was one of the highest
odds on the entire slate, like is that something you’re
putting a ton of weight in? Because, I mean the pricing’s
gotta be a pretty significant difference on some of these
higher end guys, as well, right? – Yes. So, for instance, he
is the highest for a darn good reason. And you will see something
called line value, this is very important. You’re gonna see, for instance, lines, check out that Oliveira
versus Teymur fight, for instance. That fight has swapped
back and forth odds-wise. I believe two or three times
already since the salaries and the prices for the
Vegas odds have come out. – Mhm. – So, here’s the thing, a
lot of people by Locke are going to be on whatever the
favorite in that fight is. So, you can naturally get
some leverage if you believe Teymur, who is a striker,
is going to keep the fight standing over Oliveira, he
could knock him out, he could go three rounds and piece
him up for three rounds, Oliveira has a fantastic
submission game, for instance, so it’s a classic striker
versus grappler where Oliveira has the immense upside if
he can get him to the ground and get a submission. But here’s the situation,
Teymur is an underdog and he has the same upside as Oliveira.
If not, you know, he could– – But you look at him at
significantly lower ownership, probably. – Correct, correct. So that’s where you can find
your edges in MMA, is these close matchups where one guy
is gonna be favored or he’s got a bigger name than the
other guy, for instance, you can definitely get lower
ownership on a guy like that. (lightning crashes) – Always wanna touch on this
guys, if you’re looking to invest in yourself and take
your game to that next level, I do offer one on one
coaching, so check out joeholka.com/coaching if you
want some more info on that. Gonna be having some group
coaching for NFL this year that I’m super excited about, so
in the comments below if you have any questions regarding
coaching definitely let me know. And, again guys, if you have
an Amazon Prime account, a lot of people have that these
days and they’re not taking advantage of their free Twitch
Prime subscription, so you’re gonna get access to my premium
Discord chat, which has a lot of subscriber only perks and
really just enjoy the community aspect of Twitch, it’s one
of the best parts about it, so throw me the follow over
at Twitch.tv/JoeHolka so you don’t miss any of the content over there. So I talked about this for MLB,
but maybe watching the sport isn’t the best idea, but for
MMA it sounds like there’s a lot of value that can
come from that, and also recency bias, so a lot of
people are watching these on TV, and if someone has a
really good performance, maybe the next time maybe more,
you have to kinda put them in their rosters in maybe
even a sub-optimal situation. (lightning crashes) Yeah, dude, I think there’s
so much that I guess I didn’t realize goes into it, like
I’ve heard a lot, I mean, when we went through all the
golf streams, people were talking about certain metrics
that were just incomplete, right? Because we don’t have like
a ton of really data that, it sounds like it’s the same
thing in MMA, like we just don’t have a lot of information
on these, so literally just like scouring, like, news to
to try to find videos of some of these guys too, that’s
gotta be, like, super valuable just to get an idea of, like,
what kind of fighter they are, right? – Oh yeah, it’s, the new cycle for MMA is pretty darn good, you know, you look at their
records, you look at all the videos that they, you know,
if you can find the videos, some of them aren’t out there
for the amateurs and what not but UFC Fight Pass has a lot
of the videos that you may want to go and, if you’re taking
it serious, probably get that and jump into it and look at it. You know, is this guy good at take downs? Is he going to be able
to prevent take downs? Are they just lucky? Et cetera. You know, crazy stuff
happens in MMA, trust me. Crazy stuff happens. – Yeah, dude. – It just takes one punch and
its game over for some people. (lightning crashes) – So the lack of information
in general in MMA is a huge problem, but there are ways
that we can find some of this information that a lot of
people aren’t taking the time to look for. (lightning crashes) Are you using that in some
ways to kind of project ownership? Just like, some guys that have
really strong, like, recent numbers comparatively to, like,
what they’ve done long term, like, see a lot higher ownership
just like any other sport? – Yeah, absolutely, you can
see the game logs, you’ll see guys that are just starching
people, hundred point, hundred point, hundred point. But here’s the thing, they
could be facing very low-level competition, and competition
might not be there that, you know, they finally step
up to a big name guy and it’s just game over, you know? – Yeah. – They just get starched. So there’s a lot of different
factors that go into it. You like leverage and stuff, right? Like– – That’s what I want to hear about. – Yeah. – Like how do I, like, all this
uncertainty how do I benefit from it? – You don’t care about coming
in mid-cash, you wanna win the thing, you’re just like me– – Correct, correct. If I return zero dollars
I’m literally not gonna lose one wink of sleep. – Yeah, I don’t care about
the cash, either, let’s try to win it. So, again, naturally you’re
gonna have bigger name guys, the Conor Mcgregor cards,
you’re gonna have Conor Mcgregor owned. Name value is a thing in MMA. Exactly what I was saying
earlier, you’re gonna see like that Oliveira Teymur, that
fight’s gonna back and forth, the odds are gonna be all over the place. But you know, for instance,
just that slight edge that Oliveira’s the favorite, you’re
gonna have Teymur come in as an underdog. It happens all the time. It’s really about picking
your spots, right? There’s plenty of people
out there that write amazing articles, I’m not really
in that space yet, I might at sometime, but I’m not sure about that. – Why would ya? – Heh, I don’t know, I don’t
wanna give up my edge, no, I love helping people
so it doesn’t matter. I personally like targeting
the underdogs that have that upside, so, for instance, you
know that a guy’s gonna be high-owned that’s a medium
ranged salary, so you can take the opposite side there at lower-owned. For instance, women’s fights,
overall, like I’ve said, are garner a lot less ownership
because it’s slower paced sometimes, it goes the distance,
they’re just physically not as powerful as men, so
you know, a lot of different things come into play. For instance, on this card
there’s a woman’s fight here that I know both girls are
pretty, you know, bulldogs, they’re both gonna come force
so there probably are going to be some points in that particular fight. Leveraging a field is gonna be
trying to leave money on the table. It’s so easy to build
lineups, it’s almost like golf, it’s so easy to build
lineups in MMA, right? – Yeah. – You can build a ton of
lineups, but leaving money on the table is gonna be important. You’re gonna have guys, too,
in the middle range that naturally a lot of people
would go Scrubs and Stars, and that’s gonna create an
instance where carding that mid-range of salaries is really smart. I know I’ve said 10x on
the salary is important, I think that even, it’s
getting higher and higher, the scorelines are getting like,
you know, 100 times six, it’s like 650 is winning to
700 is winning some nights. Again, card dependent, you
have to look at the card as a whole and say “Are there
expected to be a lot of finishes, are there not?”. So there’s a lot of different
speculation that goes into the whole lineup building
process, but building middle range lineups in GPP’s
will always, I think, have some sort of edge because
people are going to just make Scrubs and Stars trying to
get the biggest name guys in there. (lightning crashes) – If you wanna learn more about
how to become a profitable daily fantasy sports player,
how to get better at betting, start now by hitting that
subscribe icon in the bottom right-hand corner so you don’t
miss anything, definitely check out one of the
other DFS courses that I have on demand for free, right here on YouTube, as well. Thank you so much for
watching, and I’ll see you guys next time.

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