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2019 Daily Fantasy Sports 👊#3 MMA GPP Stacks, ROSTER Construction, WINNING LINEUP Review [2019 DFS]

2019 Daily Fantasy Sports 👊#3 MMA GPP Stacks, ROSTER Construction, WINNING LINEUP Review [2019 DFS]


– You’ve waited long enough. It’s the third and final
part of this VFS series for MMA and we’re starting right now. (techno music)
(thunder clapping) What’s up, guys? Joe Holka here. Welcome to another Daily Fantasy
Sports and Betting video. If it’s your first time here and you wanna become a
profitable DraftKings player and get better at betting, start now by subscribing to the channel. But make sure you click
that notification bell so you don’t miss anything along the way. And if you’re already a Holkamaniac, you know exactly what to do. Smash that like button
and we’ll get started. I’m not sure why this is
but almost any video I make, people wanna know if
they should be stacking and people love their stacks so we’re gonna talk a little bit about should we stack the main event in MMA, should we maybe just ignore it completely, and stack some of these other events. (thunder clapping) – And for instance, the main event, I start a lot of my lineups
with the main event. That’s really one of the
best ways to go about it. I don’t think it’s incorrect if you’re starting at GPP
to get who you want first and then if you can get a
piece of the main event, sometimes for instance, you just see a
back-and-forth striking match and it doesn’t net a lot of
points in the main event. For cash games, I’m not
personally on team stack but a big, big strategy is
to stack the main event. Take both guys in a cash game in your– – Interesting.
– Main event, or if there’s for instance, we’ve had three title fights in once, (chuckles) I know Big Marley,
he is in the chat here. He’s a big proponent of double stacking if you have two five round fights. – Okay. – Walking you in quite a lot of points. Again, I’m not on that ’cause
I don’t think it’s optimal. I try to build the most
optimal lineup that I can and I think it limits you
longterm if you are stacking but it’s definitely a
strategy you can imply. – It’s so similar to the
discussion that I had with someone about NHL Showdown, like should you play both the goalies just to lock in that win
bonus at the end of the game? So it sounds very similar. In my opinion, no, it’s not optimal because you’re limiting your
ceiling in a lot of ways and we can do it the
rest of your lineup too. So, yeah, locking in both
the guys from the main event at least, yeah, you lock in that win but also you’re lowering
your ceiling, right? Because you’re not getting that
win from another guy, right? Is that basically what it comes down to? – Yeah, yeah. When you’re targeting
these main event fights or these five round fights to
stack, you’re gonna want one that’s gonna have a finish really fast, potentially some action,
some back and forth. You don’t wanna target one
that’s gonna be slow-paced. So again, you can kinda
go back and lean on Vegas for a certain extent and say, okay, do they expect to finish? Well, if it’s gonna be in
the third or fourth round, there might not be too well
scoring if it’s two strikers. So it’s a lot of touch and feel when it comes to these types of things. – Yeah, you kinda answered
my question there. I was more or less curious if people talk about
stacking up the main event, would you ever stack up one
of these lower tier events? Or is it the same damn thing?
– The three rounders? – Yeah. – So that’s the thing, right? Each card is gonna be different. I wouldn’t be opposed to it. The rule of thumb is do
not stack in the TPP. It’s just impossible unless
you’re in a 1,000 eight-man or you know what I mean? Something like that would make sense but it just does not
make sense to stack on– – You’re not getting to the top, most likely.
– Yeah, exactly, yeah. But on a cash game, it’s possible where you
could see some action in the actual fight that
it’s back and forth. Two grapplers, right? Sometimes they negate each other and they’re going to just
kinda do submission game. You’re trying to put yourself in a spot where there’s a lot of points in the fight and that’s what I like to do,
and even for the underdogs. (thunder clapping) – By the way, guys, if
you’ve ever found value in any of my videos or live streams, one of the best ways to support
what I’m doing here for free is to throw me the follow over on Twitter. And if you’re new to the community, I also do a ton of content exclusive only to Instagram these days. So take a few seconds
and follow me over there. Really appreciate it. So my first instinct
was that there would be a certain amount of liability
to ties in this sport so I wanted to learn a
little bit more about how do we actually differentiate. Is it something like MLB where we really can just get
different in our correlation or maybe it’s something like PGA where we just wanna leave
some salary on the table to be different. (thunder clapping) – There are all quite a lot
of ties in the big GP fees and just differentiating
with money left on the table or leveraging certain
spots which we’ll get into, it’s a great sport for
leverage, I’ll tell you that because it’s one guy’s
going to get all the points and one guy is not or you’re
gonna go three rounds. They’re both gonna get points then somebody’s gonna get
those win points, right? – Yeah. – And there’s a lot of
different game theory that comes into it. (thunder clapping) – So we talked with Sean a little bit about college football, that will be dropping
soon, but Stars and Scrubs, it’s a really big thing in MMA and as pretty much my strategy across a lot of sports these days,
so is it viable in MMA? (thunder clapping) Damn, so Stars and Scrubs though, the pricing’s pretty tight, man. It’s like it starts at 9,400,
only goes down to 6,800. I wanna hear a little
bit more how the price, how do they even get these prices? Are the higher price
guys the heavy favorites? I would assume that the
main event guys are higher just because there’s more rounds. How do they even get these prices? It seems really tight
compared with a lot of sports. – So what DraftKings does is on Tuesdays they release the odds. For instance for a Friday,
Saturday, Sunday card, they usually do it on Tuesday now and each fight is priced out to be 16,200. It’s between the two fighters so– – Okay, got it. – It’s split between the
two whichever way equally and then they go to the Vegas odds and they say okay, Bibliotaph
is a four-to-one favorite. – Got it. So that’s why that guy
is gonna be bumped up, the other guy gets scaled out. – Correct. Proportionally exactly like that. And in the middle range, you see Albini, it’s a pick’ em fight and then we see a little
bit of action on Vegas that Albini’s seeing
that he’s just a -120. Now, he would probably be
realistically 83, 84 now but because when they priced
the fight, it’s a pick ’em, they are both 80-100. So you’re gonna see that’s
when I say line movement, that’s where it comes into play, but that’s not the end-all be-all at all. Like I say, in the higher range,
you’re gonna see your guys should hypothetically be
putting up a ton of points but if you can find an edge
in that middle upper tier, that really sets you apart
fast because like I say, that 10x, Oliveira, let’s say, I keep going back to Oliveira
’cause he’s a classic. – Yeah. If you look at his logs,
Joe, he’s a grappler. He gets take downs and he gets advances. He struggles against strikers, he’s gotten knocked out before, but if he gets that to the ground, he’s getting points in a really fast way and he’s getting over that 10x. So if he’s gonna win,
he’s gonna get that 10x, I’d like to see that. And then inverse, if Taymoor
is able to go three rounds, if this fight goes three rounds, both guys are gonna get
significant strikes, perhaps Taymoor gets a knock down. That’s 10 points right there, There’s a lot of different things that break down when it comes into it. (thunder cracking) – I’ve definitely got
a soft spot in my heart for the Amazon crew. It’s just another way that you can support what I’m doing here for free. Really take that extra step and use these links in
your day-to-day shopping. You can find them in
the description below. What you buy literally doesn’t matter. As long as my link brings you to the site, you’re doing your part
to support the channel so if you do decide to join the Amazon crew
with everyone else, definitely let me know in the comments and I’ll make sure you
get a personal shout out on the next video. So across a lot of DFS sports, one of the best ways to be contrarian is just to have a different
roster construction than the crowd. So we talked about Stars and Scrubs. What about playing some of
these guys in the mid-range, especially if we can find some value when the line moves late? (thunder crackling) But man, so it sounds to
me from a DFS perspective, this mid-range is where
you wanna be unique, right? ‘Cause if people are just
gonna take the favorites in this mid-range, that’s
where it seems like there’s a lot of value and
then just trying to monitor where the lines are going. I like the site just because,
about what you said before, trying to find these massive– – Interactive.
– Kind of movements in what was that? There was one you mentioned that was like, started off as he was an underdog and now he’s a pretty significant
favorite too over the time so, yes. Does ownership tend to usually
skew to where they end, not where they started?
– Yup. – Okay.
– Yes. To where they end. And we’ve seen instances
where a fight was coming with Mark Hunt versus Aleksei Oleinik and for instance, Mark
Hunt had staph infection and it was the odds crashed
pretty much after locks, so no one could do anything. But on paper, we knew that Mark Hunt was going to potentially
knock out Aleksei Oleinik. They’re both little guys
and Oleinik is a ground guy that is going to go for a submission. And it was in Russia, that they really didn’t
take anything into place but because of the staph infection, the news was breaking,
the odds were crashing. There’s really no edge we could get. But those types of things will happen where you will see spruces like a 50 to 100-point
wings close to lock. And you kinda gotta monitor it. (thunder clapping) – Is this a sport where we
can play cash games at all or should we completely ignore them? (thunder clapping) Exactly. – I think it’s amazing
but the cash games in MMA, again, a lot of people are going to stack so again, I’m not a stacker so
bring it if you’re not on it. (both laughing) But you’ll see anything, unfortunately, I can’t see anything
under $5 at this stage but I know that the $1 games usually fill the 11-man double-ups. There’s all different types of, all different price
points for the double-ups. The head-to-heads might
be a little bit dry, just a lot of the same
people but if you post ’em, you can still get action in there. (thunder clapping) – If you’re looking to invest in yourself and take your game to that next level, I do offer one-on-one coaching so check out JoeHolka.com/coaching if you want a little bit
more information on that. Actually gonna be rolling
out some group coaching for NFL this year that
I’m super excited about. Never done that before, just to kinda get a little
bit more interaction with you guys in a different way, something I’m super excited about. If you have an Amazon
Prime account though, and I always forget to mention this, if you use that to get a
Twitch Prime subscription, you’re getting access for free to all these Premium Discord
chats, subscriber-only perks, if you’re not taking advantage of that but you have been watching
the streams over on Twitch, make sure and do so and throw me the follow
while you’re there. Twitch.tv/JoeHolka. Make sure you don’t miss
anything when we go live. So Buddha is an absolute
stud especially for MMA so I was so pumped to have him to talk about MMA in particular but I wanna talk about
his qualifier strategy. He’s obviously been
qualifying for these a lot. He’s a big niche work guy so I wanna kinda pick his
brain on qualifiers now. (thunder clapping) How much of your action is qualifiers? Are you more doing this
for the experience? It sounds like you’re
one of the few people, Bales always talks about how
he’s one of the only people you sort of that actually
has a positive ROI and cues, that I think you might actually
be approaching that as well. – Yeah, yeah. I’m pretty positive in cues. I’m a one lineup guy, I’ve always been. I’m not like Manny. I don’t MME stuff. I might MME when it comes
to different types of, I don’t know, the $1 to $5 stuff but I always try to target
those higher volume, higher dollar, rather, stuff. – Yeah, it’s like anything. When you disagree with
the general consensus, that’s where you should
be scaling up a little bit in my opinion so I think
that that’s probably what’s made you extremely
successful in qualifier. So let’s talk a little bit about
your game selection in MMA. It sounds like, I mean, since
you’ve had so much success in qualifiers in particular, are you running out
some higher stakes cash? Or you mentioned MME from time to time, but just talk a little bit about the qualifier space in MMA too. – So personally myself,
I’m the optimal guy. I like to make an optimal
lineup and that’d be it. That’s the way I run. But for instance, I have three
tickets to this qualifier and I’m like, well, I
can play it safe on one and go my normal route. So it’s different ways ’cause the space, the qualifier space is really good ’cause they have all
different price points. It’s not like they have
just $100 qualifiers. They have 100 at $12.
– Right. – I believe they probably have some $5 and some pay-per-views. – Is the $100 one usually
the biggest buy-in one? – $100 is the highest one I
think I’ve ever seen for MMA. – Right. – I believe there’s a
50k up top now for it and the prize pool just got bigger for the next one that they’re rolling out which is huge for us to see but you see a lot of
the same names on this, it’s a small space but
the best part about it is you see these no badge, you see these people that
are just coming into it, probably reading the stuff, the same stuff that we read, Joe, and then they’re using
it against us. (laughs) It’s funny how that happens sometimes. You say, yeah, play this guy so then they know exactly
what we’re gonna play and they play the opposite. – Okay, so this is your qualifier, man. This is your number one qualifier. So $100 entry, 24 people gets
you into this one, right? – Yeah, yeah. Want me to break that one down? – Yeah, let’s do it. I’m curious how you think. It’s such a small qualifier for 100 bucks that this is interesting to me, for sure. – Yeah, so that’s, how many people? – 24 people.
– 24 people. – Yep, $100 buy-in. So on this particular card,
I knew that there was going to be a lot of people on T.J. Dillashaw who, like I said, had a bad weight cut. He was moving down 10 pounds
and just did not look good and we expected that particular
fight to go the distance and I knew that I would be walking myself into points with Henry Cejudo and it gives me exposure
to that five rounds and at the same token, leverage the field ’cause I think that a lot of people are going to have TJ
Dillashaw in their lineup. Then you go down that lineup there, Te Edwards had line value for instance. He did get a knockdown in that fight but he was grappled, Joe, so he was held down for three rounds and the other guy was
getting a ton of points and he was under the dog, the other guy. Te Edwards was a slight favorite,
probably like -135 or so and the other guy just crushed on scoring. Now, there’s a great example
right there, Gregor Gillespie. He is a Division I wrestler
that’s just got great striking and all he does is just grapple everybody. Look at his logs there. He’s the best probably
DraftKings play outside of Abid and Emraga Nadal. And if you look at it, as
soon as he advances, really, I mean, the take downs are fantastic, you gain five points each. If you look at the advances, that’s the column you
really wanna look at. – Okay. – So you’re getting three
points, three points, three points every time he’s
moving around on the ground or just wrench repeat taking a guy down and that’s exactly what
he did in that fight and then he got that
late finish, I believe. Is that correct? And he got even more of a bonus on top of all those take downs. And for instance, if that
fight went three rounds, we would have gotten even more
points than 150, I bet you. That’s the way that that
was particularly going. For instance, Chance
Rencountre was a rookie coming into that fight. Oh, sorry, it was the second fight but again, not a lot of stats
on that particular fight so ownership was down
on that particular one and I kind of took a stance on that one. – Yeah, 24 people, do they understand, 20% in a 24-person field,
that’s very low on. So you got a lot of leverage
on this lineup for sure. – And that’s the big thing, Joe. You and I kind of seemingly
attack things the same way and knowing that people aren’t
going to play those guys that are on the first few fights because for instance, they’re out. I mean, it’s usually 5:30, six that the first fights are online and people aren’t going to play those ones ’cause maybe they can’t see it, maybe they’re not higher named guys so people are gonna have
ownership that’s a lot lower in these first few fights. Yeah, like I say, the
lineup kind of built itself which is nice and then
it won all that stuff and I never thought that was gonna happen but that was fantastic. That was a sneak preview. Joe, they didn’t even announce
what that final was until, I don’t know, this week or something? So that’s pretty cool.
– All right. – [Both] Yeah. – I mean, $100 qualifier gets
you, is this a live final? – No, no, no.
– It’s an online fight. Got it. But I mean, it’s still 50k atop. – They’ve got a lot. – That’s a good thought. – It’s basically the run back
of what is of live as well. There’s two live finals that are running. Well, the one that’s already
been maxed, the hundred. And I love the format too, Joe. Look at it. It’s 100-man and then
they play down to 50. It’s kinda natural for MMA, you know what I mean?
– Yeah, certainly. – It fits the mold of
mano-y-mano and you play down. Yeah, like I say, they had
a bracket challenge before which was fantastic, mano-y-mano a person. But I think that the growth is there. When you get the Conor McGregors, when you get the Ronda Rousey, Ronda Rousey’s not fighting
anymore but when she was there, she was getting a ton of numbers. The prize pools are just gonna get bigger and bigger and bigger. (thunder clapping) – If you wanna learn more about how to become a profitable
Daily Fantasy Sports player and how to get better
at betting not just MMA, start now by subscribing with that icon in the
bottom right-hand corner so you don’t miss anything. A ton of DFS courses on
demand as you guys know by now for other sports so
definitely check those out. They’re 100% free. I spent a lot of time on
these videos for you guys. If you could go ahead and
throw a like on this video, I really appreciate it. Thanks so much for watching this series and I’ll see you guys next time.

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